Hey everyone, the NFL Draft is less than a month away and you don't even have to get up at the crack of dawn to watch it anymore! I'll be giving you my thoughts on some rookies that will contribute in fantasy leagues after the draft. But if you're looking for something to pass the time during the football off-season, start up a fantasy baseball team and head over to our new site at fantasybaseballblog.net. We just launched a week ago, but there will be lots of information coming your way the rest of the month. And hopefully I can help your baseball teams succeed just like your football squads. Hope to see you guys over there!
Although your fantasy football season may have been done for the past month, that doesn't mean there's nothing left to observe or note for in terms of the world of fantasy football. The NFL playoffs can be the site for some major value-changing moments for a few players. I'm going to highlight the guys who managed to use the playoffs as a great audition for some significant fantasy value next year.
RB Shonn Greene, NYJ - The Jets were the only team that came close to resembling a cinderella team in this year's fairly boring NFL playoffs. A big part of that success came on the shoulders of rookie Shonn Greene. After Thomas Jones gained 1400 yards and scored 14 touchdowns, Shonn Greene has outshone him this post-season. Greene had 54 carries for 304 yards while Jones rushed 45 times for only 117 yards. That comes out to 5.6 yrds/carry for Greene while Jones averaged less than half of that with 2.6 yrds/carry. The difference in their numbers would've been even greater if Greene hadn't sat out almost the entire second half of the AFC Championship Game against the Colts due to an injury. These playoffs are a changing of the guard and Jones might not even be on the roster next year as he's due a $2.8 million bonus on March 9th, which the Jets might be hesitant to pay to a complementary back who will turn 32 before the next season. Green could emerge as a huge sleeper next season as the possible leading back for one of the heaviest run-heavy team and running behind that impressive O-Line.
RB Felix Jones, Dal - After Shonn Greene, Jones has seen his future fantasy stock soar the most of any player in the playoffs. Even though he didn't average as many yards per carry as last year (an astounding 8.9), he still averaged an amazing 5.9 yards per carry this season. Despite this, Jones didn't receive more than 15 carries in a single game during the regular season. In Dallas' first playoff game, he got 16 carries and gained 148 yards with them and a touchdown (plus a 30 yard reception). This should be a sign of things to come as there have been trade rumors invovling Marion Barber (unlikely, but still a result of the gaining notion that Jones will be the lead back for Dallas next year). We all should be excited to see what Felix can do with possibly twice as many carries next season.
WR Greg Jennings, GB - Even though Green Bay only had one playoff game, Jennings used that game to remind fantasy managers not to forget him next year. He had 8 receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown with 12 targets. While many owners were hurt by his mediocre (compared to his expectations) season this year, there are other reasons than his playoff performance to expect a very nice bounce back. Driver who ended up out-producing Jennings fantasy-wise this season is turning 35 and could end up experiencing his decline anytime now. Aaron Rodgers cemented his spot among the elite fantasy quarterbacks this season. And Jennings' December was his best month of the season, so hopefully combined with the playoff game, will lead into a strong start to next season. You might be able to get him for a nice little discount next year.
WR Pierre Garcon, Ind - Garcon has taken the opportunity given to him by Anthony Gonzalez's injury and run with it. Gonzalez has become an afterthought and Garcon looks to be the next top Colts receiver. His numbers in the playoffs are 16 receptions, 185 yards and 25 targets which all lead the team in their two games so far. It's not only the numbers, but watching the AFC Championship Game, Garcon looked like a beast, making some very impressive catches. He looks like he's locked into the starting spot opposite of Reggie Wayne for the near future.
WR Julian Edelman, NE - Edelman doesn't necessarily have great playoff stats, but he showed enough in the Patriots loss to the Ravens to be trusted as the Wes Welker clone early on next season. Welker still hasn't had surgery on his torn ACL as he's had to wait for his MCL to heal, so his prognosis for next season is already looking glum. In his stead, Edelman will try to do his best Welker impressions, which wasn't too bad considering if you take the 4 games that Edelman stepped in for Welker and project them to a full season, you get a stat line of 108 receptions, 1100 yards and 8 touchdowns....not too shabby at all. Just remember that Welker will be back eventually, so Edelman's value is on borrowed time, but that doesn't mean he can't be a great draft day bargain for you next year.
WR Early Doucet, Ari - We've been hearing Anquan Boldin trade rumors for awhile now, but I think it's finally time that we'll see a trade happen. In the past, Arizona hasn't had much motivation to trade Boldin, but with him entering his final year in his contract, and the showing that Doucet put on in the playoffs, I think there's plenty of motivation to make a trade happen. As for Doucet, he did a great job replacing the injured Boldin in the playoffs, coming up with a total line from two games of 14 receptions, 145 yards, 2 touchdowns and 17 targets, all of which led the team except for the yardage. If Boldin is traded, I believe that Arizona will give Doucet every chance to win the #2 receiver spot over Steve Breaston as Breaston fits the role of a slot receiver better and would allow him to continue to be involved in the return game. And considering Doucet's showing these past two games, he has a real chance to win that job from Breaston. A great sleeper pick if Boldin is traded.
WR Austin Collie, Ind - Collie falls under the same category as Garcon in taking advantage of Gonzalez's injury. Collie doesn't quite have the upside as Garcon as he doesn't have Garcon's speed or after the catch ability, and he is more suited to play the slot. But as Collie showed us this season and we've seen in the past from Indy's #3 receivers in years past, that position can offer fantasy owners some great draft day value. I'm not as high on him as Garcon, despite his ridiculous penchant to score touchdowns the last couple months, but he had a great second half of the season and a very strong playoff showing (11 receptions, 175 yards, 2 touchdowns and 17 targets in two games) which could catapult him into a great position of value for fantasy owners next season.
TE Jermichael Finley, GB - Finley used the Packers one playoff game to put an exclamation point on his impressive end of the season run that saw him shoot up the tight end rankings. His 6 reception, 159 yard performance is a taste of what's to come for next season. Make sure you don't undervalue Finley as he has a real chance to be a top 5 fantasy tight end in 2010.
TE Dustin Keller, NYJ - As opposed to Finley who used the playoffs to continue a positive trend to his season, Keller used the playoffs to reverse a negative trend for his season. Keller was one of the bigger fantasy disappointments, regressing from his rookie numbers. But he managed to make a good showing in the playoffs coming up with 12 receptions, 181 yards, 17 targets and a touchdown in each of the 3 playoffs games. Although none of the games stand out as amazing, he managed to find some consistency, which is crucial for him in this run-oriented offense. These three games haven't thoroughly convinced me that it's a sign of things to come for Keller next season, but they have given enough reason for owners to feel good about making Keller one of their better sleeper picks for next season.
The playoffs can also negatively affect a player's fantasy value for the next season. Here's a few guys who saw their value take a tumble the last month.
RB Thomas Jones, NYJ - It's pretty much all said in the paragraph about Shonn Greene. The torch has been passed, and once you see a downward trend with a running back who is 31 years old, it's usually all downhill from there. He'll still have some value next year, but his regular season stats will probably drive his price way beyond what you'll get in return. He averaged 2.6 yards/carry in the 3 playoff games.
RB Marion Barber, Dal - Also is directly tied to one of the players who saw their stock soar in the playoffs in Felix Jones. Barber will still be a significant part of the Dallas backfield, but the days of Barber being discussed as a possible fantasy first rounder are definitely gone. Dallas tried to feature him as their every down back, but his body just can't handle that role. He still hasn't topped 1000 yards in a season and for the last two years his yards per carry average has dropped to 3.7 and 4.2, while only reaching the end zone 7 times each season. These just aren't elite running back numbers, and with Felix Jones' emergence, there's no reason to be looking for Barber on draft day. Although injuries played a role, he still only averaged 1.6 yards/carry in the two playoff games.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD - Oh how the mighty have fallen. Tomlinson will most likely be cut by the Chargers as he's owed a $2 million bonus in March. His chances of finding a fantasy value-filled role somewhere else is very unlikely, just ask Shaun Alexander. And there's no reason to think he should find that type of role as finished the season averaging only 3 yards/carry this season, punctuated by the Chargers playoof loss that saw LT touch the ball 15 times and only gain 24 yards with those touches. You won't want to take him at all in your drafts next year, don't be tempted by the name or the 12 touchdowns that were a byproduct of being on a great offense and sharing a backfield with the miniscule Darren Sproles.
RB Brian Westbrook, Phi - Westbrook will join LT as perennial first round fantasy backs who experienced their fantasy demise in 2009. Westbrook's possible last game as an Eagle saw him catch one pass for 27 yards and have no carries. As is the case with Thomas Jones and LT, Westbrook is facing the wrong side of 30, plus he has knee and concussion problems. Philly drafted MCCoy for a reason and Westbrook's ability to help fantasy teams out has all but vanished.
Congrats to everyone who won their leagues this past weekend. As for everyone else, there's always next year. As for the others who are still playing this week, find yourself a new league next season because it's ridiculous to be playing your championship game in Week 17, which is why I'm not posting any content and Dominic won't be posting a Studs and Duds. But for you loyal readers who have unfortunately found yourself playing in Week 17, send me an email at dunn@fantasyfootballblog.net and I will give you my advice for this week as always.
Thanks for being a part of this site and hopefully we were able to help you achieve the success you had this season. We'll see you guys next season and keep your eye out for our fantasy baseball website, which will hopefully be launching in the next couple months.
So this is it, this week is the fantasy championship. Hopefully all of you are into your championship game and if not at least have a chance to win some money back or pride. Last week, the huge snowstorm affected everywhere from Baltimore to New England. Take a look at some of the weather reports before you pick your starters this week just to be sure. There are some huge games this week with some big potential for the league leaders to put up. Also, on Christmas night the Chargers face the Titans so many fantasy players can start the championship off right.
STUDS
QB Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Last week he blew up against the Steelers defense and now he faces a very weak Seahawks defense. Rodgers will put up big numbers this week and is a must start if you have him.
QB Alex Smith- Smith had a bad week against the Eagles but expect him to bounce back against the Lions. In his last five games Smith has thrown for ten touchdowns. Smith has made his case to be the 49ers starter for next year.
RB Frank Gore- Gore has been putting up some good numbers in recent weeks both rushing and receiving. It also helps the Niners get to play the Lions at home. I would expect big numbers from Gore this week.
RB Cedric Benson- Benson and the Bengals have a lot to play for now. Benson will step up and run all over the Chiefs, who don’t have much to play for anymore.
WR Miles Austin- The Cowboys need to win and they are going to the right place, Washington. Manning and the Giants exposed this secondary on Monday night so expect the same from Romo and Austin. Austin will blow by the corners and put up some big number.
WR Vincent Jackson- Back to back great games has fantasy owners happy again. Rivers is finally finding Jackson even threw the double and sometimes triple teams. Jackson will have another good game against the Titans on Christmas night.
TE Fred Davis- Davis has scored in four straight games. Davis is the only Redskin worth a start at the moment. Campbell looks to Davis when he is in trouble, which lately has been very often.
FLEX Ahmad Bradshaw- Bradshaw has been pretty impressive the last two games, which surely helped his fantasy owners during playoff time. Bradshaw will get some touches this week as well and probably a few screen plays thrown in there. Bradshaw is a threat to break a big play every time he touches the ball.
DUDS
QB Joe Flacco- The last few weeks Flacco has gotten back on track after a few bad weeks. This week the Ravens are going to Pittsburgh, which is a huge game for both teams. The Steelers will bring everything they have to stop Flacco and the Ravens.
QB Brett Favre- Favre has had a rough December and I wouldn't expect things to change this week. The Bears are sick of being embarrassed and the recent drama between Favre and Childress will spill over to the field.
RB LeSean McCoy- McCoy should not really be affected from Westbrook returning from his long absence. McCoy is facing a tough Broncos rush defense and Weaver is beginning to cut into all the carries McCoy once had.
RB Joseph Addai- Addai has been a pretty consistent fantasy player this year but not this week. Addai faces a tough Jets defense and the fact that the Colts can start resting people at any moment doesn’t help.
WR Hines Ward- The Ravens defense is still tough to play against. This game will be played mostly on the ground and big plays, which usually go to Holmes.
WR Reggie Wayne- Wayne is not a must start this week because there is always a chance the Colts will "rest" their players. Even if Wayne does play he will be covered by Revis, which means look somewhere else.
TE Dustin Keller- The Jets only seem to move the ball by rushing it. The passing game is mostly gone, as the weather has gotten cold. The Colts defense is still tough and will stop Keller and the Jets offense as they still pursue the perfect season.
FLEX Tim Hightower- If you are starting Hightower you must be desperate. Aside from his touchdown last week, Hightower had a terrible game. Most if not all the carries are going to Wells and the only hope for Hightower is a goal line situation.
SLEEPERS
RB Jerome Harrison- Wow! What a game it was for Harrison. I am sure many owners picked up Harrison after that game. Who knows though if he will get that many touches again as the Browns face the Raiders. If you have an unfavorable match up, Harrison might be the answer.
Well everyone is now into the playoff season and looking for the right moves in order to advance to the championship round. This becomes difficult with the rumors of people sitting and some injuries to key players. Decisions begin early this week as the Colts take on the Jags on Thursday night. No one knows how long the Colts will play their starters so it becomes risky playing any Colts starters. This time of year some teams play many of their rookies so they get some playing time and experience to see what they can do. The Saints will also be playing the Cowboys on Saturday night.
STUDS
QB Matt Schaub- The Texans have an outside shot at making it to the playoffs. If they make it will be because of Schaub. The Rams are one of the worst teams in the league and Schaub will throw all over the secondary. It helps when Schaub can throw the ball to Andre Johnson and with the Texans having issues at running back.
QB Kurt Warner- Warner and the entire Cardinals offense struggled on Monday night so they will look to bounce back. It helps they are playing the Lions so the offense will get back on track.
RB Knowshon Moreno- Moreno has been looking good of late even though he has been splitting time with Buckhalter. Now that Buckhalter is out all the carries will go to Moreno. Moreno will run all over the Raiders this week.
RB Jamaal Charles- Charles had a huge game last week and expect another one this week. The Chiefs take on the Browns so expect a lot of handoffs in this game, with both quarterbacks struggling.
WR DeSean Jackson- Jackson might be the most explosive wide out in the NFL. If he is not running by defensive backs for touchdowns, he is returning punts for touchdowns. Jackson has become McNabb's favorite deep threat and there were no signs that the concussion bothered him at all.
WR Brandon Marshall- What a play if you are in a PPR league last week! Even though Marshall will not have that many receptions this week expect a big game. Orton always looks to Marshall.
TE Vernon Davis- Davis is finally having his break out season and proving to many why he was drafted so high. Davis will continue to have a good season this week as he faces the Eagles secondary, which gives up a lot of yards and touchdowns to tight ends.
FLEX Ray Rice- This guy is having a great season and rewarding his owners who selected him in middle to late rounds. Rice can do it both rushing and receiving as he showed last week against the Lions. I wouldn't expect the same numbers as last week but Rice will put up some good numbers against a struggling Bears defense.
DUDS
QB Jay Cutler- What a disappointing season for Cutler and the entire Bears offense. It will not get easier this week as the Bears travel to Baltimore. Cutler will struggle again as the Ravens defense will blitz all day.
QB Carson Palmer- Palmer has struggled the last few weeks. Last week Palmer didn't even throw for over a hundred yards. Don't expect great numbers this week as the Bengals travel to San Diego.
RB Ryan Grant- Grant had a big game last week but this week the Packers go to Pittsburgh. This defense has been embarrassed the last few weeks so expect them to come out hungry and stuff the run. This will be a low scoring game and if the Packers win it will be because of Rodgers and the passing game.
RB Matt Forte- Forte has been another disappointment this season. The Ravens defense will stop all aspects of the Bears offense. Look for some other options if you have Forte, he is not a must start anymore.
WR Mike Sims-Walker- It looks like he will play this week and even if he does it is a risky start. The last four weeks have been really bad for Sims-Walker after such a good start of the season. He should be able to bounce back but don't expect it to be this week.
WR Roddy White- His streak of last second touchdowns ended last week. This week doesn't look good, as Revis will cover him. Revis will shut down White and force the ball to other receivers.
TE Dustin Keller- Keller is usually a solid tight end you can count on but in the last two weeks he has a combined eight yards. Don’t expect much again out of Keller even if Sanchez is back.
FLEX Tim Hightower- Hightower had a bad game on Monday night and could lose some carries with him fumbling the ball again. That could mean more carries for Wells and less time for Wells, even though the Cardinals face the Lions.
SLEEPERS
RB- Arian Foster- With Slaton out for the year and Moats and Brown not making good cases for themselves, it could mean a huge chance for Foster against the Rams.
WR Dwayne Bowe- Not so sure if this counts as a sleeper but if you picked him up or held on to him after his suspension but you might want to take a chance. Reports say Bowe stayed in shape and the Chiefs play the Browns so it could be a good start.
Thursday, March 11, 2010