Although your fantasy football season may have been done for the past month, that doesn't mean there's nothing left to observe or note for in terms of the world of fantasy football. The NFL playoffs can be the site for some major value-changing moments for a few players. I'm going to highlight the guys who managed to use the playoffs as a great audition for some significant fantasy value next year.
RB Shonn Greene, NYJ - The Jets were the only team that came close to resembling a cinderella team in this year's fairly boring NFL playoffs. A big part of that success came on the shoulders of rookie Shonn Greene. After Thomas Jones gained 1400 yards and scored 14 touchdowns, Shonn Greene has outshone him this post-season. Greene had 54 carries for 304 yards while Jones rushed 45 times for only 117 yards. That comes out to 5.6 yrds/carry for Greene while Jones averaged less than half of that with 2.6 yrds/carry. The difference in their numbers would've been even greater if Greene hadn't sat out almost the entire second half of the AFC Championship Game against the Colts due to an injury. These playoffs are a changing of the guard and Jones might not even be on the roster next year as he's due a $2.8 million bonus on March 9th, which the Jets might be hesitant to pay to a complementary back who will turn 32 before the next season. Green could emerge as a huge sleeper next season as the possible leading back for one of the heaviest run-heavy team and running behind that impressive O-Line.
RB Felix Jones, Dal - After Shonn Greene, Jones has seen his future fantasy stock soar the most of any player in the playoffs. Even though he didn't average as many yards per carry as last year (an astounding 8.9), he still averaged an amazing 5.9 yards per carry this season. Despite this, Jones didn't receive more than 15 carries in a single game during the regular season. In Dallas' first playoff game, he got 16 carries and gained 148 yards with them and a touchdown (plus a 30 yard reception). This should be a sign of things to come as there have been trade rumors invovling Marion Barber (unlikely, but still a result of the gaining notion that Jones will be the lead back for Dallas next year). We all should be excited to see what Felix can do with possibly twice as many carries next season.
WR Greg Jennings, GB - Even though Green Bay only had one playoff game, Jennings used that game to remind fantasy managers not to forget him next year. He had 8 receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown with 12 targets. While many owners were hurt by his mediocre (compared to his expectations) season this year, there are other reasons than his playoff performance to expect a very nice bounce back. Driver who ended up out-producing Jennings fantasy-wise this season is turning 35 and could end up experiencing his decline anytime now. Aaron Rodgers cemented his spot among the elite fantasy quarterbacks this season. And Jennings' December was his best month of the season, so hopefully combined with the playoff game, will lead into a strong start to next season. You might be able to get him for a nice little discount next year.
WR Pierre Garcon, Ind - Garcon has taken the opportunity given to him by Anthony Gonzalez's injury and run with it. Gonzalez has become an afterthought and Garcon looks to be the next top Colts receiver. His numbers in the playoffs are 16 receptions, 185 yards and 25 targets which all lead the team in their two games so far. It's not only the numbers, but watching the AFC Championship Game, Garcon looked like a beast, making some very impressive catches. He looks like he's locked into the starting spot opposite of Reggie Wayne for the near future.
WR Julian Edelman, NE - Edelman doesn't necessarily have great playoff stats, but he showed enough in the Patriots loss to the Ravens to be trusted as the Wes Welker clone early on next season. Welker still hasn't had surgery on his torn ACL as he's had to wait for his MCL to heal, so his prognosis for next season is already looking glum. In his stead, Edelman will try to do his best Welker impressions, which wasn't too bad considering if you take the 4 games that Edelman stepped in for Welker and project them to a full season, you get a stat line of 108 receptions, 1100 yards and 8 touchdowns....not too shabby at all. Just remember that Welker will be back eventually, so Edelman's value is on borrowed time, but that doesn't mean he can't be a great draft day bargain for you next year.
WR Early Doucet, Ari - We've been hearing Anquan Boldin trade rumors for awhile now, but I think it's finally time that we'll see a trade happen. In the past, Arizona hasn't had much motivation to trade Boldin, but with him entering his final year in his contract, and the showing that Doucet put on in the playoffs, I think there's plenty of motivation to make a trade happen. As for Doucet, he did a great job replacing the injured Boldin in the playoffs, coming up with a total line from two games of 14 receptions, 145 yards, 2 touchdowns and 17 targets, all of which led the team except for the yardage. If Boldin is traded, I believe that Arizona will give Doucet every chance to win the #2 receiver spot over Steve Breaston as Breaston fits the role of a slot receiver better and would allow him to continue to be involved in the return game. And considering Doucet's showing these past two games, he has a real chance to win that job from Breaston. A great sleeper pick if Boldin is traded.
WR Austin Collie, Ind - Collie falls under the same category as Garcon in taking advantage of Gonzalez's injury. Collie doesn't quite have the upside as Garcon as he doesn't have Garcon's speed or after the catch ability, and he is more suited to play the slot. But as Collie showed us this season and we've seen in the past from Indy's #3 receivers in years past, that position can offer fantasy owners some great draft day value. I'm not as high on him as Garcon, despite his ridiculous penchant to score touchdowns the last couple months, but he had a great second half of the season and a very strong playoff showing (11 receptions, 175 yards, 2 touchdowns and 17 targets in two games) which could catapult him into a great position of value for fantasy owners next season.
TE Jermichael Finley, GB - Finley used the Packers one playoff game to put an exclamation point on his impressive end of the season run that saw him shoot up the tight end rankings. His 6 reception, 159 yard performance is a taste of what's to come for next season. Make sure you don't undervalue Finley as he has a real chance to be a top 5 fantasy tight end in 2010.
TE Dustin Keller, NYJ - As opposed to Finley who used the playoffs to continue a positive trend to his season, Keller used the playoffs to reverse a negative trend for his season. Keller was one of the bigger fantasy disappointments, regressing from his rookie numbers. But he managed to make a good showing in the playoffs coming up with 12 receptions, 181 yards, 17 targets and a touchdown in each of the 3 playoffs games. Although none of the games stand out as amazing, he managed to find some consistency, which is crucial for him in this run-oriented offense. These three games haven't thoroughly convinced me that it's a sign of things to come for Keller next season, but they have given enough reason for owners to feel good about making Keller one of their better sleeper picks for next season.
The playoffs can also negatively affect a player's fantasy value for the next season. Here's a few guys who saw their value take a tumble the last month.
RB Thomas Jones, NYJ - It's pretty much all said in the paragraph about Shonn Greene. The torch has been passed, and once you see a downward trend with a running back who is 31 years old, it's usually all downhill from there. He'll still have some value next year, but his regular season stats will probably drive his price way beyond what you'll get in return. He averaged 2.6 yards/carry in the 3 playoff games.
RB Marion Barber, Dal - Also is directly tied to one of the players who saw their stock soar in the playoffs in Felix Jones. Barber will still be a significant part of the Dallas backfield, but the days of Barber being discussed as a possible fantasy first rounder are definitely gone. Dallas tried to feature him as their every down back, but his body just can't handle that role. He still hasn't topped 1000 yards in a season and for the last two years his yards per carry average has dropped to 3.7 and 4.2, while only reaching the end zone 7 times each season. These just aren't elite running back numbers, and with Felix Jones' emergence, there's no reason to be looking for Barber on draft day. Although injuries played a role, he still only averaged 1.6 yards/carry in the two playoff games.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD - Oh how the mighty have fallen. Tomlinson will most likely be cut by the Chargers as he's owed a $2 million bonus in March. His chances of finding a fantasy value-filled role somewhere else is very unlikely, just ask Shaun Alexander. And there's no reason to think he should find that type of role as finished the season averaging only 3 yards/carry this season, punctuated by the Chargers playoof loss that saw LT touch the ball 15 times and only gain 24 yards with those touches. You won't want to take him at all in your drafts next year, don't be tempted by the name or the 12 touchdowns that were a byproduct of being on a great offense and sharing a backfield with the miniscule Darren Sproles.
RB Brian Westbrook, Phi - Westbrook will join LT as perennial first round fantasy backs who experienced their fantasy demise in 2009. Westbrook's possible last game as an Eagle saw him catch one pass for 27 yards and have no carries. As is the case with Thomas Jones and LT, Westbrook is facing the wrong side of 30, plus he has knee and concussion problems. Philly drafted MCCoy for a reason and Westbrook's ability to help fantasy teams out has all but vanished. |
 | » posted by: Fantasy Football Blog (Dunn) |
Thursday, January 28, 2010