Now I would love to pick another WR or add to RB depth at this point. But this draft so far has followed some pretty strong trends and I've got a feeling quarterbacks will be the flavor of this round. Regardless of what the trend might be, I still think this is later than where Brees should go. The alternative to taking Brees here is waiting for whatever QB manages to make his way to the end of the 6th.
42. Dave – WR Greg Jennings, GB
I need another WR in this slot, and even with Favre gone; Jennings should put up numbers in Green Bay. He will be the go to guy for Rodgers or Brohm and I love his touchdown making ability. It seems every year this guy is doubted by fantasy drafters and slips to the middle rounds. I decided not to let this happen in this draft.
43. Chris – WR Roy Williams, Det
I think the WR run continues through this round. Roy Williams is the highest rated guy for me out of the next few guys and it's time for me to grab another wideout.
44. Dunn – QB Carson Palmer, Cin
I feel like there is a big drop-off after Palmer when it comes to the quarterbacks. The top five all have a good chance of being a top three QB this season and no other QB has that upside. I was hoping Brees would fall to me, but it wasn’t that long ago that Palmer was considered the #2 QB. Hopefully the dysfunctional family that is the Bengals passing attack can get along well enough to make this a good pick. By getting one of the top 5 quarterbacks, I don’t have to worry about drafting another QB for a while. I thought about Santonio Holmes here, but I feel the difference between Palmer and whichever QB I could get next round is larger than the difference between Holmes and the WRs next round.
45. Dan B – RB Thomas Jones, NYJ
Jones is a risk/reward pick. The risk is that he is getting old and running backs often get banged up as they reach their 30s. The reward is that the Jets were able to sign Alan Faneca in the off-season. Consistent fantasy producers follow elite linemen around the league. Although some would point to Adrian Peterson's amazing running last year, I would point to Steve Hutchinson, Bryant McKinnie, and Matt Birk. Thomas Jones is not going to have an AP season, but he will certainly gain yards behind D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Alan Faneca so long as he stays healthy. This is a huge upside pick in my opinion.
46. Tim – WR Santonio Holmes, Pit
I’ve always heard of the 3-year plan for WR's. They say most WRs take 3 years to develop and Holmes enters his 3rd season as a sleeper pick for me. The Steelers will pass the ball and Roethlisberger started building a connection with Holmes. Holmes will be the top Steeler WR this season. Hines Ward has fallen behind and I believe Holmes will see 80 balls, 1200 and 10 td's as the #1 receiver.
47. Danh – TE Kellen Winslow, Cle
Winslow is finally making strides after his non-existent rookie season.
48. Trevor – QB Matt Hasselbeck, Sea
Last year Hasselbeck posted career bests in passing yards and TDs placing him in the top echelon of fantasy passers. I see him putting up similar numbers this year. A lot of people might point to his lack of top quality wideouts as a reason to think his production will decline, but I think many people overlook the fact that he has never had a pass catcher out of the backfield. I think that this fact alone will add 400+ yards and at least a couple more TDs to his stats. The other QBs on the board may have better upside than the consistent Hasselbeck, but I don't want to take chances on an injury prone, aging McNabb or a potential one hit wonder like Anderson.
49. Dan G – TE Tony Gonzalez, KC
The man has missed one game in 11 seasons and is the picture of consistency. His TDs are not what they were 5 years ago, but he put up almost 1200 yards receiving last season and the Croyle/Huard combo will be looking for him again in 2008 as the offense looks to right the ship.
50. Mike – QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
Either the addition of Mendenhall will keep opening the airwaves for Big Ben or the Steelers will hand it off 40 times a game. The Steelers still have enough WR weapons to help Ben out so I think he'll be ok.
-Just to put to rest all of the rumors I mentioned in my 6/3 Recent News blog and any others you might have heard about wide receiver Chad Johnson being a question mark for this season, he’s back at the Bengals practice facility, he’s had a minor ankle surgery to remove bone spurs and has confirmed that he will be present for training camp; so much for all those holding out during the season suggestions and/or threats. Chad Johnson will be present for training camp, will be in uniform for the entire season, and most likely, be determined to prove himself even more on the football field this season after his off-season antics got out of control, even for his standards. Don’t hesitate to draft Chad Johnson at the appropriate spot. Welcome back to the WR1 tier Chad.
-I haven’t reported on them at all yet, but I have been, and will continue to keep my eye on my Seattle Seahawks receiving core. With Matt Hasselbeck still lining up behind center, and Coach Holmgren around for one more year, there are going to be some nice sleeper candidates at wide receiver for this team. The only problem is that there are a few too many candidates. Although they aren’t the Tennessee Titans receivers when it comes to sheer volume and complete lack of talent, there is some good competition going on especially for the #3 WR spot. More information to come later, but for now it looks like Bobby Engram is still holding out over his insufficient contract, but is expected back for training camp and provides the most value, Nate Burleson has impressed during minicamp and seems to be securing the other starting spot, Courtney Taylor and Ben Obomanu seem to be the frontrunners for the #3 spot with Logan Payne and Jordan Kent behind them, and Deion Branch is looking more and more likely to start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list with a possible mid-season return.
-Oakland Raiders wide receiver Javon Walker was robbed and left unconscious in Las Vegas a week ago. The whole story has not been confirmed yet, but there have been suggestions that he sustained an orbital fracture and might have impaired his vision. He was released from the hospital one day after being admitted. Sources from the Oakland Raiders have stated that they fully expect Walker to be fine for training camp. I usually like to avoid reporting on players’ off-field antics and run-ins with the law unless they directly affect their fantasy value because I believe the media focuses too much on that kind of news, but this is just another one of many reasons why I will be trying my hardest to stop any of you from drafting Javon Walker this year. I wanted to give him a chance to turn himself into a possible sleeper because I still remember his amazing explosiveness before his injury problems, but that’s just looking less and less likely.
-There have been some indications coming out of Tampa Bay’s off-season that might suggest running back Earnest Graham could see a few less carries this season. Graham skipped all “voluntary” OTAs to show displeasure about his contract status while his agent and the Bucs have been discussing a new contract. In the meantime, Coach Gruden has been praising Warrick Dunn and saying he’s more than just a third down back. Also, reports are extremely positive about Carnell Williams’ comeback from a torn patellar tendon and although he’s still a long ways away from contributing in any shape or form, he could become a factor in the second half of the season. Graham did show up for mandatory minicamp, but split time with Dunn and Michael Bennett during that camp. He also made no promise to show up to training camp if his contract isn’t settled by then. At this point, I would much rather have a Jonathan Stewart, Thomas Jones or LenDale White than Graham.
-Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch has been involved in a long drawn out process involving a hit-and-run case where he was supposedly driving for the last three weeks. As I said earlier, this is not the type of stuff that I like to spend my time reporting on, but it has now entered the realm of affecting his fantasy value. Lynch is expected to plead guilty to the charges, and although he most likely won’t serve any jail time, there is a possibility that he might face some punishment from the NFL for the incident. It is reported that there is a small chance that Lynch could be given a one game suspension. Although it looks unlikely right now, if he is suspended for one game, I would drop him a little, not too much, in my rankings, most likely behind the likes of Ryan Grant, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee. As of right now, I would take Grant and Portis over Lynch solely based on the possibility of a suspension.
-Despite a few intriguing free agents at the running back position such as Kevin Jones, Shaun Alexander and Ron Dayne, the Chicago Bears have made it clear that they don’t have a desire to acquire a new running back to compete with Matt Forte for the Chicago starting running back position after the release of Cedric Benson. The lack of other great options and what seems like strong support from the front office and the coaching staff has put Forte in a very good position to give his fantasy owners consistent production this season. Forte is looking like a very nice RB3 option this year.
With the first pick in the 4th round I'll take Chad Johnson. He'll put up his usual 1400 yards and 8 TDs for someone next year.
(WR R.Moss, RB L.Johnson, RB R.Bush)
32. Dan G – WR T.J. Hushmandzadeh
With my fourth pick I'm taking T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The irreverent Ocho Cinco is perpetually on the fritz and cannot be relied on, so I see Housh getting the bulk of the receptions. He has been more than a productive WR in his last four seasons and I expect him to improve on his 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns from last year.
(QB P.Manning, RB R.Brown, RB M.Turner)
33. Trevor – TE Antonio Gates, SD
Looking at the players left on the board at this point, Gates gives the largest advantage over the other players at his position. The difference between the top few tight ends and the rest of the pack is huge, and I saw an opportunity to take the best player at his position. Some would argue that Jason Witten will have a better fantasy year than Gates, but he has not been as consistent as Gates over the years, especially in racking up the TDs.
(RB F.Gore, WR R.Wayne, RB M.Jones-Drew)
34. Danh – WR Torry Holt, Stl
What can I say, I needed the best available WR to round up my receiving core and I expect Holt to bounce back after an underwhelming season.
(RB M.Barber, RB R.Grant, WR M.Colston)
35. Tim – RB Darren McFadden, Oak
This pick was hard to make, lots of good WRs but I still need a RB and can you say Adrian Peterson? Well, McFadden’s not Peterson but I don’t see why he can’t have the same year Peterson had last season. The Raiders didn’t draft him to sit on the bench and with Fargas the only one in his way for carries, I feel that D-Mac will prove he's worthy of that number one overall pick, and then I should be "smiling like a butchers dog" come playoff time.
(QB T.Brady, RB C.Portis, WR L.Fitzgerald)
36. Dan B – WR Plaxico Burress, NYG
Strike 1: He has a bad attitude. Strike 2: I hate relying on the Giants passing offense, which is schizophrenic at best. No, this is not a pick without risk, but the reward is just as great. Plaxico scores touchdowns because Plaxico is gigantic. It is that simple. There were plenty of other viable options here, including my sleeper, who I hope to pick up next round, but I wanted Plaxico's TDs.
(RB J.Addai, RB M.Lynch, WR S.Smith)
37. Dunn – WR Brandon Marshall, Den
I really like the potential Marshall provides with this pick. Although there is some risk and concern, his upside was too great to pass on for my WR2. Marshall had arm surgery for nerve damage after falling into a television, but his progress has gone well and nothing suggests he won’t be ready for training camp. Now the good news, after the Broncos signed a few mediocre receivers to compete opposite Marshall, he could lead the league in targets again, just like he did last year. Coming off a 100+, 1300+ season last year Marshall is young and still improving. Look for Cutler and Marshall to take a big step forward this year and make up one of the better QB/WR combos in the league.
(RB S.Jackson, RB J.Lewis, WR A.Johnson)
38. Chris – TE Jason Witten, Dal
He's the consensus #2 and arguably the #1 TE in the game. I think the rest of the wideouts left here are going to be very close, so I'd rather sure up a position and wait for the turn to take my next wideout.
(RB B.Westbrok, RB W.McGahee, WR B.Edwards)
39. Dave – WR Anquan Boldin, Ari
I have my two running backs and my QB, now it is time to start moving on to the wide receivers. I believe Boldin is the best value left on the board along with another guy I hope to get on the snake thru, so that is why he gets the call at this pick.
(RB A.Peterson, RB L.Maroney, QB T.Romo)
40. Ben – WR Wes Welker, NE
Most people have generally slotted 2 RBs, and 2 WRs so far, so I have to gauge the trends a little bit more for my next pick. This pick, however, does not take much science. I can complement T.O. with the speedy Welker, who used Moss’ double-teams to find all sorts of space last year to the tune of 1175 yards. It's true that he gives up some red-zone touches to Moss, but if your league awards points per reception then he should be going much higher than this, even in a non-PPR league, his week by week consistency warrants his selection here.
So with 2 solid RBs, I'm turning my attention to wide receiver. With only Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne off the board, I have my relative pick of the litter. With that in mind, I'm taking T.O. I know some guys are younger and faster, but this isn't a keeper draft. Owens is still in great shape and has established a great relationship with Romo over the last 2 seasons.
22. Dave – QB Tony Romo, Dal
Speaking of that Romo guy, I'm taking him here with the 2nd pick in the 3rd round. I'm set at the running back position with my first two picks, and I want to get that solid QB locked in here in the 3rd round. Romo's stock is on the rise and he should be in for another monster season with T.O. on his flank.
23. Chris – WR Braylon Edwards, Cle
This guy is the #1 target on a high-powered offense. I think at this point there are a lot of WR's who are in the same tier, but not enough to last through the run I think is about to happen. I really do think that this is the point where wideouts are going to start going, so I'd much rather be at the front of the WR run then at the end.
24. Dunn – WR Andre Johnson, Hou
I was really happy to get one of the top five WRs here. I’ve always been a big fan of Andre Johnson and firmly believe that if he and Matt Schaub can stay healthy, he’ll establish himself as the #2 fantasy wide receiver this season. Although I would prefer Wayne’s overall consistency or Edwards’ TD consistency, Johnson has the most potential of any receiver not named Moss and should not fall out of the top five wideouts.
25. Dan B – WR Steve Smith, Car
Not a spectacular offense, but a spectacular receiver. Smith is the picture of consistency despite an often-stumbling offense in Carolina. He has finished over 1000 yards receiving in his past 3 seasons, including his last two in only 15 and 14 games, respectively. Obviously, Smith does not have the upside of a T.O. or Randy Moss, but he is a productive WR1 in an offense that depends on him to produce and score TDs.
26. Tim – WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ari
Well, with the big push for WR's in this round I have to take one here and I feel Fitz is the choice. 100 receptions, 1400+ yards and 10+ td's are not out of the question. If this guy stays healthy, the world’s the limit.
27. Danh – WR Marques Colston, NO
1200 yards and 11 TDs from the young breakout star a year ago. I expect him to continue this production as my #1 WR.
28. Trevor – RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jax
Jones-Drew will continue to improve in his third year. Though he is still splitting carries, Fred Taylor is another year older, so I am expecting that MoJo will see more carries than last year. David Garrard is establishing himself as a passer so defenses can’t pack the box against the run every play. In addition, in his first two years he has been a good TD producing back and that trend will continue this year.
29. Dan G – RB Michael Turner, Atl
I could definitely use another RB here and with all of the legitimate starting RBs off the board, the choice is to either go with a major platoon guy or take a chance on someone like Michael Turner. It certainly helps that I have been a Turner fan for the last few years while he has dutifully backed up one of the best in the game. But his numbers say a lot too... averaging 5.5 yards per carry over his career and fumbling only twice in over 200 carries. He has shown serious wheels and as a backup for 4 years, has a lot of mileage left for being in the "prime" of his career. This is the year he steps out of LT's shadow and helps the rebuilding Falcons get on the right track.
30. Mike – RB Reggie Bush, NO
With the last pick in the 3rd round I'll take Reggie Bush. Not much left as far as RBs go. Certainly none left with as much potential as Bush, even though he's struggled in his first 2 years.
Here's the link to Yahoo's entire mock draft. Links to each round are located at the top of the article. Remember that they have 12 picks in each round while we have 10.
-Running back Cedric Benson has finally been cut by the Chicago Bears. This came after his latest drunken driving arrest, just one of many run-ins with the law Benson has had this off-season. As we finally can take Benson off our fantasy radars and say good riddance, we look to a rookie as our sleeper for this year. Matt Forte, bearing any unlikely signing of a veteran running back, will now be the Bears’ starting running back. The Chicago offensive coordinator re-iterated yesterday what I reported a few weeks ago, that Forte can be a three down back, and it looks like he will now. I’m almost tempted to say that Forte now has more value than Darren McFadden for this season, but I’ll try and avoid angry emails from McFadden lovers and say the two are very close in value. If you’re in the middle rounds of your draft and are looking for a running back that has a very good chance at 300 carries, Forte is the choice. Don’t forget though, that offense still isn’t very good.
-Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy has raved about rookie QB Brian Brohm’s intelligence and instincts in the pocket so far. Aaron Rodgers is still the unquestioned starter going into the season. But if Rodgers struggles, gets hurt or Green Bay takes a nosedive in the standings mid-season, we might start to witness a quarterback controversy in Green Bay. At the very least, Brohm is starting to look like my favorite rookie quarterback for future seasons. This is a guy to target in dynasty leagues.
-Reports out of the Oakland Raiders’ Organized Team Activities are that their new $55 million receiver Javon Walker (one of the worst investments by a football team this past off-season) has looked sluggish and out of shape. Walker is really going to have to show some of the old explosiveness he had a couple years back before he started having knee problems before I can recommend anyone picking him up in their fantasy league. But I’ll keep an eye on him because he is Oakland’s #1 receiver, so if he ever gets completely healthy, he could be a nice sleeper. He’s not there yet though.
-Updating the three-way battle in Baltimore for the quarterback position between Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and rookie Joe Flacco, nothing has really been resolved. Boller was the favorite after the draft, but Smith has reportedly outplayed Boller and is better liked by his teammates. Although Smith is reportedly the underdog, a lot of people are saying that they think he has a good chance to be Baltimore’s starter in week 1. Flacco needs to agree on a contract before training camp begins, and even then he’d have an uphill battle to start in week 1.
-Darren McFadden, the fourth overall pick in the NFL draft, just agreed to a contract with the Oakland Raiders for six years and $60 million, with $26 million of that guaranteed. This ends any possibility of a holdout and allows McFadden to get acclimated with the offense and he is now in a good position to lead the Raiders backfield in touches this season.
-Linebacker Nate Webster has surprisingly been playing middle linebacker with the first team defense for the Denver Broncos over Niko Koutouvides. It was expected that Niko would be given the starting job, but it’s looking like this will be a training camp competition. This is a battle for people in IDP leagues to keep their eye on, as the winner will be a nice source for high tackle numbers.
-Running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are both progressing well in their returns from injuries. Ricky Williams has looked especially impressive; some reporting that he has been the most impressive Dolphin in practice so far this off-season. Bill Parcells and coach Tony Sparano both enjoy having a running back by committee, so this is looking more and more like a situation that is shaping up as a committee. Brown will be the starter and see more touches, but with Williams potentially taking lots of time and touches away, this is going to hurt Brown’s value. I would bump him down a round or so on my draft list.
-Donovan McNabb has stopped all passing activities due to shoulder tendonitis. Reports of McNabb having shoulder soreness first surfaced five days ago, and he’s now been shut down. Although many quarterbacks experience some soreness when first reporting for OTAs and passing camps after the off-season, this still seems like something to be concerned about. I’ll keep an eye on his activities, but as of now, I’d probably rather have guys like Cutler, Hasselbeck and Roethlisberger on my fantasy squad than McNabb.
-New York Giants defensive end Michael Strahan has retired after 16 seasons in the NFL. He finishes fifth all-time in sacks with 141.5 in his career. He also holds the single season record for sacks with 22.5 in 2001.
-Wide receiver Terrell Owens has signed a new long term contract with the Dallas Cowboys. The contract is for four years and $34 million, with $13 million of it guaranteed.
-And for those of you who participate in yahoo’s fantasy football leagues, they are now up and running. So go create your leagues and join your leagues, it’s getting closer to that great time of the year!
Thursday, June 26, 2008