Hi everyone, I want to apologize for my vanishing act the past couple months. I just got a new job which has taken over all my time. But I am getting organized and adjusted with the new job and gearing up for the next season. Unfortunately my new job prevented me from sitting on my couch for 20 hours during the NFL Draft weekend and providing you guys with my thoughts as the draft was happening like last year, but once we get up and running again for the 2010 season, you will definitely hear my thoughts about the new rookie class.
So check back in the near future and I hope everyone else is as excited for the upcoming season as we are here at fantasyfootballblog.net!
Here's the final installment of my rundown of the coaching changes this off-season and how they'll affect the fantasy landscape for their players.
OAKLAND
Oakland decided to retain Interim Head Coach Tom Cable. Now that Cable's title is official, he was able to bring in his own coordinators and will be able to implement a new system over this off-season. He hired former Niners QB Coach Ted Tollner to run his offense and hired former Seahawks DC John Marshall to run his defense. The only thing I know for sure about Cable bringing in Tollner is that JaMarcus Russell will be in another new offensive system (he might make a run at Jason Campbell's record of 6 new offensive systems in his first 6 seasons in the NFL), which is not a good sign for Russell making any big positive strides this year. Marshall coached talented linebackers Julian Peterson and Lofa Tatupu in Seattle, so he should be able to get the best out of the Raiders stud LBs, Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard.
SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco has handed over the reigns to their future to Mike Singletary with his new long term contract. Singletary then brought in former Jets RB Coach Jimmy Raye to replace Mike Martz at OC. Anytime you replace Martz at OC, your offense is going to change drastically, and usually for the worse (no matter how much Martz might be disliked, there is no denying his results when it comes to putting as strong of an offensive product on the field as he can). But I actually see a lot of positive fallout coming from Raye's hire. The main guy who will benefit will be Frank Gore, as Raye will implement a more run heavy offense and thinks Gore can be a consistent 25 carry back (although the Niners GM was recently quoted as wanting a 2 back system that the entire NFL loves now, but I'll believe that when they bring in a running back that makes it actually worth taking carries away from Gore). FB Tony Richardson might follow Raye to the Niners as his contract with the Jets is up, giving Gore one of the best blocking fullbacks to play in the NFL in the last couple decades. I also think this is great news for Vernon Davis, as Martz' offense was very unfriendly to tight ends.
SEATTLE
AS it was pre-determined awhile ago, Jim Mora will take over for Mike Holmgren in Seattle. He brought in Greg Knapp from Oakland (and previously in Atlanta with Mora) to be OC and hired TB LB Coach Gus Bradley to run the defense. Mora and Knapp will focus more on the running game than Holmgren did, which makes Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett (for TD-heavy leagues) nice sleeper options this season. It also limits Hasselbeck's potential in his potential bounceback season this year as he won't be throwing the ball nearly as often. Gus Bradley will most likely bring the Tampa 2 defense with him, which is always a strong defense for fantasy numbers from good tackling corners which Marcus Trufant and Josh Wilson (if he isn't replaced this off-season) are.
ST. LOUIS
Former Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo takes over as HC of the Rams. He brought in Pat Shurmur from Philly to be OC, which suggests that the Rams will switch to a west coast style of offense which Marc Bulger has never ran before in his career. There's definitely potential for a very slow start next season for the Rams offense as they adjust to the new offense (not to mention the potential trades of Torry Holt and Orlando Pace). Former Carolina LB Coach Ken Flajole will be the new DC, but the defense will be run by Spagnuolo will stay a 4-3, but should have more blitzes and pressure with Spags in charge.
TAMPA BAY
In somewhat of a surprising move, the Bucs fired Chucky, I mean Jon Gruden, and promoted DB Coach Raheem Morris as Head Coach. First of all, anyone else find it ironic that in the end, it was the horrible Oakland Raiders, Gruden's former team who he spurned to leave for Tampa and win a Super Bowl, who beat Gruden's supposedly playoff-bound Bucs in Week 17, knocking the Bucs out of the playoffs and causing Gruden to lose his job and currently be out of a job in the NFL? I love it. But back to the Bucs, Morris hired Jim Bates to be DC and these two will supposedly change the defense and not run a Tampa 2 anymore (does that mean we have to change the name of the defense now?). Morris hired Jeff Jagodzinski, former Boston College Head Coach (who was fired JUST for interviewing for an NFL job....is it just me or should colleges support or be proud when their Head Coach is considered for a promotion to the NFL? Is that now one of the most classless moves in recent history?). Jagodzinski has said he will keep the zone-blocking run style, which is great news for Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn as they excel in that run style.
It's official (well as official as it gets with Favre), but Brett Favre has announced his retirement from the NFL. Unlike last time with the Packers, he has actually submitted his retirement papers. He cited injuries as his main reason for his decision. He was facing the prospect of having surgery on his torn bicep and felt like his body was breaking down, signaling that it was time for him to retire....again.
Although the last couple years have been mired with his retirement indecision, he should be remembered more for being one of the top 5 quarterbacks ever in the NFL. I know that I had more fun watching him play football than just about any other player. Although it wasn't quite the same watching him this past season, Favre will be sorely missed. Thanks Brett for the many great moment and memories.
As for the Jets, they probably got a decision sooner than they expected and now are able to deal with an open QB position in either free agency or the draft. Kellen Clemens is the in-house default option, although there have already been some reports of 3rd string QB Brett Ratliff being considered a better option. Clemens hasn't exactly inspired me with any of his play since coming into the NFL, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jets draft a QB in the first round in the draft. Matt Cassel isn't an option since the Patriots would never trade him to the Jets. Derek Anderson is the obvious trade option. As for free agency, there isn't a lot of options, unless Kerry Collins becomes available.
Tony Dungy, one of the coaches in the NFL that I respect the most (Does anyone else think Dungy should've gotten more credit for Gruden winning the Super Bowl with his players?), has finally retired, and the job of replacing him goes to QB coach Jim Caldwell, who has been waiting in the wings since being announced as the successor to Dungy a couple years ago. With this transition set in place years ago, not much should change for the Indy offense (Does Peyton even need a offensive coordinator or head coach?). Caldwell brought in defensive line coach Larry Coyer from Tampa Bay to be his DC. Coyer will run the same Tampa 2 defense that Indy has been running since Dungy arrived, although look for Coyer to emphasize the run more than previous DC Ron Meeks.
JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville hired former Browns DC Mel Tucker to run their defense. Not much to say here as everything should stay the same since Head Coach Jack Del Rio basically runs the defense in Jacksonville.
KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs just hired Todd Haley, offensive coordinator for the Cardinals as their new Head Coach. They also brought on highly regarded GM Scott Pioli from New England to run the team. Haley still hasn't hired a OC or a DC, but with his offensive background, he'll be the one dictating and running the offense, which is great news for Dwayne Bowe. Haley's tutelage of Boldin and Fitzgerald resulted them in becoming arguably, the best receiver tandem in the history of the NFL (I haven't looked up the evidence, but I feel surprisingly confident about making that statement, and haven't been given any obvious alternative pairings in all the conversations I've had regarding this subject). Haley also was a receivers coach before becoming the OC in Arizona and oversaw pro bowl seasons from Keyshawn Johnson and Marty Booker. Look for Bowe to have a big breakout season with Haley calling the shots in KC. Pioli might want the Chiefs to run a 3-4 on defense like the Patriots do, but we won't know for sure until they hire a DC.
NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans landed Gregg Williams as their DC, who is you're willing to overlook last year's mediocre Jacksonville defense, has a history of being in charge of some very good defenses in the past. His presence should be a good sign for the talented and underachieving Defensive Ends in New Orleans. Since being hired, Williams has praised Jonathan Vilma and thinks he would be the perfect centerpiece for his defense. If Vilma resigns, look for him to have a top 10 IDP season next year.
NEW YORK GIANTS
The giants lost highly coveted DC Steve Spagnuolo to the Rams as their Head Coach. Replacing Spags will be Linebacker Coach Bill Sheridan. As someone who worked under Spags, he should keep a very similar if not identical system in New York with lots of blitzes and pressure.
NEW YORK JETS
After firing Mangini, the Jets hired Baltimore Rex Ryan to be their next Head Coach. He managed to convince OC Brian Schottenheimer to stay as the OC, increasing the chances that Favre stay in New York for another year, and that also means that the offense should be fairly similar next year. Ryan will concentrate more on the defensive side where they will keep the 3-4 the Jets ran last year and Ryan ran in Baltimore, but they will be much more aggressive. Ryan's presence gives some hope that Vernon Gholston might be able to develop into a Terrell Suggs type player someday and not turn into the complete bust he looked like his rookie year. There are also lots of rumors revolving around free agent LBs Ray Lewis or Bart Scott following Ryan to New York. I worry that if Ryan is able to bring in more defensive talent, it could result in a deflation of David Harris' numbers. Harris should still be a top IDP pick as the centerpiece of a revitalized and attacking defense in New York.
The final installment of the Coaching Carousel will be posted in a couple days.
This off-season has seen an unprecedented hiring of 10 head coaches. Add to that all the changes in offensive and defensive coordinator and we have the potential for a lot of fantasy players to be affected across the league. So with that in mind, I'm going to take a look at all the changes and try to predict the effects, if any, they will have on fantasy performances next year, offensively and defensively.
CAROLINA
Carolina has completely revamped their defensive coaching staff, bringing former Indy DC Ron Meeks in to run their defense. They haven't announced what kind of defense they will run, as Meeks is a Tampa 2 guy, but Head Coach John Fox is a defensive-minded coach with a background in the 3-4. Either way, Meeks' hiring bodes well for Richard Marshall as Indy's CBs always had high tackle totals and Marshall is the physical corner that Meeks desires. Look for him to build off his impressive season last year.
CLEVELAND
Eric Mangini is the new Head Coach, bringing Brian Daboll, the former Jets WR Coach with him to be his OC. Mangini hired Rob Ryan from Oakland to be his DC. Daboll will run an offense very similar to the previous regime. Jamal Lewis fits the profile of a RB that Mangini likes, so if he can avoid being a cap casualty, look for him to have a bounce back year under Mangini. Mangini was also non-committal about who will start at QB if both Quinn and Anderson are both on the roster. I have to imagine that that was more to boost the trade value of Anderson, and no matter what, Quinn will be the starting QB next year. A concern is that Mangini's disciplinarian coaching style might not mesh well with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, both who are looking for new contracts and have been subjects of trade rumors (more Winslow). Defensively, Mangini and Ryan will keep the 3-4 formation and look for D'Qwell Jackson to have a big year as the centerpiece of that defense.
DENVER
Denver surprised many by firing future Hall of Fame coach Mike Shanahan. While Shanahan the coach was brilliant to the end, Shanahan the GM was the one to blame for Denver's decrease in talent and wins. I'm still not convinced that handing a coach the title of GM and Head Coach is ever a good idea. But on to the new regime in Denver. They hired New England OC Josh McDaniels to replace Shanahan. It's easy to see the Patriots offense translating well to Denver with Brandon Marshall as the Randy Moss and Eddie Royal as the Wes Welker. I was worried for the Denver passing game when Shanahan was fired, but it should be just as good, if not better under McDaniels. Marshall especially has tons of potential in the long term in this offense, although be warned that there's a distinct possibility that Marshall will start off slowly next year as he doesn't pick up new offenses very quickly, but once he's able to grasp McDaniel's offense, he should compete to be the #1 fantasy WR. McDaniels hired former San Francisco Head Coach Mike Nolan to run the defense. Nolan will switch the Broncos defense to a 3-4, moving D.J. Williams to an inside linebacker position which should help him maintain his strong tackling numbers.
DETROIT
Detroit hired former Tennessee DC Jim Schwartz to be their new Head Coach. He hired former St. Louis Head Coach Scott Linehan to be his OC. This should be good news for both Calvin Johnson and especially Kevin Smith. Linehan tends to get pass happy, especially in the red zone, where he will look to use Johnson's athleticism to score a lot of touchdowns. As for Kevin Smith, lets hope that Linehan has Steven Jackson in mind when utilizing Smith. Linehan has never been much of a running back by committee coach, and has stated he will keep the zone blocking scheme, which Smith has success with at UCF in college and last year for Detroit. Jim Schwartz and new DC Gunther Cunningham will employ a similar 4-3 defense that Detroit used last year.
GREEN BAY
The Packers hired former Patriots DB coach and longtime NFL coach Dom Capers to run their new defense. Capers will switch the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4, moving Aaron Kampman from defensive end to outside linebacker. Kampman could experience quite a learning curve with a switch like that. Even if he picks up his new position quickly, I would still have some worries about his tackles, as OLBs in a 3-4 defense struggle to register enough tackles to be strong in tackle heavy IDP leagues. This is also a worry for A.J. Hawk. The Packers haven't announced where they plan on playing Hawk. Most people assume he'll play ILB, which would be great for his fantasy value, but if he ends up playing OLB, his fantasy value would take a significant hit.
I will post my coverage of the other teams in the next few days.
Friday, May 22, 2009