Last week was full of upsets in the NFL and in fantasy leagues. Many leagues are now into the playoff season and a in a few other leagues this is the last week of the regular season. Fantasy moves this week can make or break and entire season. This week has many good potential match ups for some of the league leaders in points.
STUDS
QB Donovan McNabb- Last week the Giants let up over 300 yards passing in a win over Cowboys. Expect the same thing to happen this week as McNabb gets Jackson back and the way to beat the Giants will be through the air. McNabb will carry the Eagles in a close game as both teams are trying to win the division.
RB Jamaal Charles- The Bills are one of the worst in the league against the run and the Chiefs don’t have much of a passing attack. This simply means Charles will get plenty of touches and put up some good numbers this week.
WR Anquan Boldin- Boldin has put up double digit points in three of his last four games and he seems to always perform during primetime. Warner is back to normal and with teams doubling Fitzgerald; Boldin is wide open on almost every passing play.
WR Robert Meachem- Meachem is facing a Falcons defense that allows plenty of yards to opposing wide outs. Plus Meachem has scored in five straight games including two, 2 touchdown games. It also doesn't hurt when Drew Brees is throwing you the ball.
TE Visanthe Shiancoe- Shiancoe has been one of the best tight ends in the league this year. Favre looks for him when the Vikings are down on the goal line and he has touchdowns in three straight games.
FLEX Ray Rice- Last week on MNF, Rice and the entire Ravens offense struggled but don't expect that this week. Rice goes against the Lions and the Ravens are still in the hunt for the Wild card. The Ravens will get Rice the ball.
DUDS
QB Jay Cutler- Cutler has to be considered one of the biggest busts this year. Now he faces the Packers who picked him off four times in the opener. Cutler leads the league in interceptions and the Packers will get a few more off Cutler.
QB Carson Palmer- The Bengals went through a stretch of three easy games and Palmer wasn't impressive during any of those games. Now he faces a Vikings defense that is out for revenge after being embarrassed on Sunday night by the Cardinals.
RB Tim Hightower- Beanie Wells has been stealing some carries but Hightower has still put up some good numbers in the last few weeks. Hightower faces a 49ers defense that is tough against the run so expect the Cards to throw the ball on MNF.
RB Matt Forte- Forte may get some extra carries with Cutler struggling but in the last meeting the Packers shut him down. Plus the Bears should be down in the game so they may have to abandon the running game.
WR Vincent Jackson- Jackson is the only wide receiver threat for the Chargers so defense are doubling him. Jackson hasn't had a good game in weeks and Rivers is just throwing the ball to Gates instead.
WR TJ Houshmandzadeh- Housh might be thinking that coming to Seattle was a bad choice. This has been the worst year for Housh and it doesn’t seem like it will get any better. He only has three touchdowns on the year and two 100-yard performances. The Seattle passing attack is too inconsistent to count of Housh for anything.
TE Fred Davis- Davis has become a good weapon since Cooley went for the year. The Raiders surprisingly are very good against opposing tight ends so don't count on Davis this week.
FLEX Kevin Smith- It seems like Smith is always in the DUD category and every once in awhile he surprises and has a good game. Not this week though as the Lions face the Ravens. In desperate need of a win the Ravens will throw everything they have at the Lions.
SLEEPERS
RB Quinton Ganther- Ganther is splitting carries with Rock Cartwright but he had a decent game last week and could put up some numbers against the Raiders.
WR Devin Thomas- Thomas had his breakout game last week against the Saints. Thomas seems to be the only threat for the Redskins at wide out. He is worth a look if you have some injuries or some bad match ups this week.
Here are a few players that stand out as having a difficult playoff schedule and ones with an easy one. For managers with no trade deadline, here's a chance to try and out-smart yourself with playoff match-ups. For everyone else, take a look at your players and you can start to get excited or nervous about your match-ups in the upcoming weeks.
QUARTERBACKS:
The Good -
Drew Brees vs Atl (4), Dal (13), TB (5): It seems somewhat unfair that the second best fantasy QB out there would also have the easiest playoff schedule, but that's how it it. I wouldn't be surprised if half the teams with Brees win their championships considering the schedule he has. Enjoy Brees owners.
Kurt Warner vs SF (15), Det (1), Stl (11): Another QB1 without a single bad match-up. Not only does Warner have a nice schedule, but he's been on fire the last handful of weeks besides his injury issue, which looked like it wasn't a problem anymore on SNF.
Philip Rivers vs Dal (13), Cin (17), Ten (2): Rivers has a fairly good playoff schedule, but what really stands out is that ripe match-up in the championship week against Tennessee.
*Matt Schaub vs Sea (9), Stl (11), Mia (7): Schaub as an asterisk because I'm not sure how his shoulder injury will affect his play. I have to imagine it will negatively affect him a decent amount. But if he can shrug it off, he has a very nice schedule throughout all three weeks.
Alex Smith vs Ari (10), Phi (19), Det (1): For all you Peyton owners that are worried about seeing Jim Sorgi in Week 16, Alex Smith is your savior. I've already picked him up on one team with the intention of playing him in the championship week (assuming I make it). He gets to face Detroit that week, pure fantasy gold for quarterbacks. Plus I was at the San Fran game this weekend and they look like they've completely abandoned the run. How do you give Frank Gore only 9 carries in a game where you're only losing for 6 minutes of the game? I think they easily ran more than half their plays out of the shotgun.
Chad Henne vs Jax (8), Ten (2), Hou (20) & Ryan Fitzpatrick vs KC (3), NE (21), Atl (4): These two would fall under the desperate category. But for those of you in very deep leagues and 2-QB leagues, keep an eye on these two, as they have a a couple great match-ups and have each shown some ability (albeit not consistent) to put up strong enough numbers in a game at some point the last few weeks.
The Bad -
Tony Romo vs SD (26), NO (29), Was (28): Romo doesn't have even one decent match-up in all three weeks. It might be hard to bench him, but if you have someone close his caliber, you might want to consider it.
Eli Manning vs Phi (19), Was (28), Car (27): A couple of tough match-ups in the last two weeks look scary for Manning owners. He's played just as well as Romo over the past few weeks, so again, if you have someone close to the same caliber, consider plugging them in for weeks 15 & 16.
Donovan McNabb vs NYG (22), SF (15), Den (31): Another QB who has played just as well as Romo and Manning the last handful of weeks. What really scares me about McNabb is the potential of trying to win a championship with your QB facing the 2nd worst defense for QBs to face. Depending on how Alex Smith plays the next couple weeks, I might plug him in for McNabb for Week 16.
The Ugly -
Peyton Manning vs Den (31), Jax (8), NYJ (32): I was reading a fellow fantasy football blog a week ago or so and he mentioned that in one of his dynasty leagues, the guy who owns Peyton Manning has made the playoffs the last 7 years and made the championship game 3 of those years, yet he doesn't have a single championship. It's a drastic case (I won one of my keeper leagues last year with Peyton as my QB, so it's possible), but still makes a decent point, especially with Indy sitting at 12-0 and the closest team to them in the AFC is sitting at 9-3. Let's just say I'm definitely worried. I already picked up Alex Smith for Week 16 just in case. Week 15 doesn't worry me too much because even if Manning doesn't play the whole game, he should still get solid stats in a partial game against Jacksonville. It's Week 16 that worries me, even if Peyton plays a whole game, it'll be against the #1 defense against QBs. Not a great scenario all around. Manning owners, start making backup plans and we'll discuss this subject as we approach Week 16.
Matt Ryan vs NO (29), NYJ (32), BUF (30): Absolutely brutal, that's the only way to describe the playoff schedule that Ryan would've faced if he didn't get injured. Ryan owners, take solace in the fact that the injury actually helped you. Now you won't be tempted to insert Ryan in your lineup against one of the top 4 fantasy pass defenses with the playoffs on the line. Hopefully you found someone to take his place a week ago, and that that someone wasn't Chris Redman who is going to have to face these three defenses.
I wanted to give all of you a heads up on which teams are giving up the most and least number of fantasy points to opposing players. And in my next blog I'll highlight a few of the players who will be facing those teams during the fantasy playoffs (for better or for worse). So for those of you who are fortunate enough to not have to worry about this week and are looking forward to Weeks 14-16, take a look at this article and start preparing for your playoff run.
Fantasy Points Allowed to Opposing QBs: Top 5: DET TEN KC ATL TB
Bottom 5: NYJ DEN BUF NO WAS
Fantasy Points Allowed to Opposing RBs: Top 5: BUF CLE OAK STL TB
Bottom 5: MIN PIT GB CIN BAL
Fantasy Points Allowed to Opposing WRs: Top 5: TEN DET SEA JAX TB
Bottom 5: NYJ CAR BUF PHI CIN
Fantasy Points Allowed to Opposing TEs: Top 5: PHI MIN ATL DET NYG
Well last week had a few good games but many of the games were boring or blowouts. The Monday Night game did not live up to the expectations for viewers and many fantasy owners. It seems like the only Patriots player to show up was Maroney. Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker were huge disappointments but on the flip side almost every Saints player had great fantasy value. The most exciting game of the week was the Ravens vs. Steelers game on Sunday night. Once again the NFL has scheduled a Thursday Night game, with the Jets traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills. For some leagues this is the last week before the playoffs so good luck to all and make those last minute moves to get into the playoffs or for seeding.
STUDS
QB Donovan McNabb- McNabb may be without Jackson who has a concussion but the Falcons have a weak pass defense. Avant has been pretty good over the couple of weeks so the Eagles wont suffer too much if Jackson is out. Celek, Avant and Maclin will fill in just fine as the Eagles continue their playoff run.
QB Jay Cutler- This is a risky pick but come on he is playing the Rams. Cutler has to break out of this slump at some point and Rams have to be that. If Cutler can not produce this week, then there is no hope for the rest of the year and you might need to find other quarterback options if you haven't already.
RB Thomas Jones- Last time Jones faced the Bills he rushed for over 200 yards so this is a must start. Jones only has two games this year where he managed less than 10 fantasy points. Jones is the only shot the Jets have at sneaking into the playoffs with the erratic play of Sanchez. The Jets will hand the ball off to Jones all night and don't expect the Bills rush defense to stop him.
RB LeSean McCoy- With some of the wide outs hurt McCoy is the answer. If McNabb isn't having success with the passing game, coach Andy Reid will hand the ball off to McCoy. McCoy has benefited from Westbrook's head injury and who knows if Westbrook will make it back for the rest of the season.
WR Michael Crabtree- Many expected a little more out of Crabtree last week against the Jags but it still wasn't a terrible game. Crabtree faces a questionable Seahawks secondary and should put up good numbers. Crabtree and Alex Smith have made quite a connection so expect Smith to look his way the rest of the year.
WR Vincent Jackson- The last three weeks have not been kind to Jackson owners as his best game was 5 fantasy points. Rivers will look Jackson's way and he will have a great game against a terrible Browns team.
TE Tony Gonzalez- Gonzalez is one of the best tight ends in the league. With Matt Ryan out this week backup quarterback Chris Redman will be looking Gonzalez way all game to bail him out.
FLEX Ray Rice- Rice is as much of a running threat as he is a receiving threat. The Ravens have another tough game this week against the Packers on MNF. Since the Ravens bye week during week 7, Rice's lowest point total is 13 so consider him a start this week.
DUDS
QB Eli Manning- News came out this week of problem with his other foot but Eli is going to play this week against the Cowboys. The Giants have been hurt by injuries and the running backs have not opened up the passing game. If the Giants lose this week it could put them on the outside of the playoff race.
QB Kurt Warner- Warner is coming off a head injury and now faces one of the best defenses in the NFL in primetime. The Vikings will bring everything they have at Warner like they did against Cutler last week. This is not a good match up for Warner.
RB Brandon Jacobs- What a disappointment this year has been for Jacobs. Jacobs was coming off his best year as an NFL player. The last time the Giants faced the Cowboys he managed only five fantasy points and I would expect a similar game from him.
RB Jerious Norwood- Norwood will be the starter this week with Turner suffering a setback last week. Norwood could have wished for a better match up this week as he faces a tough Eagle run defense.
WR Terrell Owens- Owens is coming off his two best weeks as a Bill but this week is not a good for Owens. Owens will be cover by Darrelle Revis, who has shut down Randy Moss (twice) and Steve Smith last week. This will not be a good week for Owens.
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh- Housh has been a hit or miss player this season, most of the time he is a miss. He is not a huge threat for touchdowns so unless you're in a PPR league I would look for a different option.
TE Zach Miller- Miller faces a tough defense in the Steelers this week. The Steelers are out for blood and with Miller being the top target for the Raiders offense; it doesn't look good for him or the Raiders this week.
FLEX Kevin Smith- Except for the great game against the Browns Smith has not done much for his fantasy owners. Smith faces the Bengals this week that will once again shut down Smith.
SLEEPERS QB Alex Smith- I am not so sure he is considered a sleeper at this point any more. Smith is coming off a good week against the Jags and now faces the Seahawks. The 49ers need him to play well as they make their playoff run. If your quarterback has a bad match up this week take a look at Smith.
WR Jason Avant- Avant has had a few solid weeks and with Jackson probably out this week look for Avant as a sleeper start this week.
This will be a short a week for six teams as they play on Thanksgiving. The two games during the day seem almost un watchable, unless you have players on any of the squads. The night game though is an interesting game because both teams are struggling and need a win to stay alive in playoff chases. On Monday night there is huge match up between the Saints and Pats in New Orleans, which will have many fantasy owners watching in all leagues. Owners now are paying attention to every detail as they make moves in order to secure a playoff spot. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
STUDS
QB Carson Palmer- The Bengals will want revenge after the embarrassing loss to the Raiders. Palmer didn't have a bad game last week but he will want to prove that the Bengals are for real. Palmer will have a big week against the Browns even if Benson is out again.
QB Matt Ryan- Matty Ice had a good game against the Giants as he led them back in the fourth quarter. The Falcons are in the playoff hunt and Ryan will have to carry them into the playoffs, especially if Turner is out again. Ryan will lead the Flacons to a big win against the Bucs this week.
RB Thomas Jones- Jones is quietly having a great year for the Jets. Even with the blowout against the Pats and all the turnovers, he still managed to gain over one hundred yards. Jones will continue his great season and have a good game against the Panthers.
RB Ryan Grant- Grant has put together some good games of late. The Packers will up early against the Stafford less Lions. This means Grant will get plenty of touches and have another good game.
WR Mike Sims-Walker- Another player who has had some great games the last few weeks. When the Jags don't give the ball to MJD they look to Sims-Walker, who now is Garrard's favorite target when he's under pressure. Sims-Walker should have a good week against an injured 49er secondary.
WR Wes Welker- Welker had a huge week against the Jets with 15 receptions for over 190 yards. In PPR leagues, Welker might be the best receiver in the NFL. Brady looks for Welker often and if teams focus on Moss they often forget about Welker.
TE Vernon Davis- Davis is one of the only threats on 49ers offense and with the Niners often trailing he gets plenty of touches. The 49ers playoff hopes are beginning to fade but if they make a run Davis will be a big part of it.
FLEX Steven Jackson- Another week another hundred yards for Jackson. With Bulger out for 3-6 weeks, Jackson will have to pick up the slack and carry the entire team. Jackson is set up for a huge game as the Rams face the Seahawks.
DUDS
QB Jay Cutler- Cutler might be one of the bigger disappointments of the year so far. His stats are sub par considering where he was drafted in many leagues. Don't expect Cutler to turn it around this week as the Bears face the Vikings. Cutler could be adding to his league high in interceptions.
QB Joe Flacco- After a hot start Flacco has struggled in the last few weeks, as he hasn't scored over ten fantasy points. Flacco and the Ravens take on the Steelers this week, which is a tough match up. The games between these two are usually low scoring and won by the better defense.
RB Jamaal Charles- Charles put up some good numbers against a tough Steelers defense last week. Don't expect those numbers this week though, as the Chiefs travel to San Diego. The Chargers defense has been looking good and they stuffing run.
RB Kevin Smith- Smith had a big week last week as he was even targeted as a receiver from Stafford. With Stafford out, the Lions will suffer both throwing and running ball.
WR Miles Austin- Austin has begun struggle lately as teams have some tape on Austin. The problem with this week is the best corner in the NFL, Nnamdi Asomugha, will be covering him. Don't expect good numbers this week, as Romo will look other places.
WR Steve Smith (CAR)- The last two games Smith has produced very well. The problem with this week Darrelle Revis will be covering Smith. Revis has shut down Randy Moss twice and expect the same for Smith this week.
TE Fred Davis- Davis had his break through game against the Eagles a few weeks ago when Chris Cooley went down. The Eagles wont let Davis have a huge game again. The Eagles will shut down the Skins in Philly this week.
FLEX Justin Forsett- Forsett had a great game filling in for Jones last week. Jones might be back this week, which would cut down his touches a lot. Even though the Seahawks are facing the Rams don't expect much from Forsett.
SLEEPERS
RB Rock Cartwright- If you have some injuries or just don't like whom your running back is facing, take a look at Rock. He is facing a tough Eagles defense but Portis and Betts are out so Cartwright will get the majority of the touches.
RB Bernard Scott- There is no word if Benson will play this week or not but even if he does Scott could have a big game as the Bengals play the Browns. Expect many touches for Scott, which will be yards and touchdowns.
Friday, December 11, 2009